Guitar Apocalypse

[SFCRetired]

Of course guitars aren't selling right now, except to those of us who are in the game. Who has the extra money to buy anything right now? The days of "I think I'll buy me a guitar and learn how to play" has been replaced with where can I get the money to pay my electric bill.

[fazool]

I think there is a lot of sensible social science and economics rationale behind this premise.

COVID drove an unusually large spike in guitar purchases and the economic fallout is starting to land - people are running out of "free money" and there is a glut of used guitars pent up heading for the used market.

I believe this.

It's not hard to predict a housing bubble or the dot-com bubble so predicting a guitar bubble is not a big stretch of the imagination.

I think it will definitely be a buyers' market for a while but it will be interesting to see if it is strictly the entry-level market that gets saturated.

Personally, I think the sub $1K market is where the glut will be since a lot of toe-dippers likely didn't buy >$1K guitars during COVID.


On another note, I am guessing that we will see an auto-industry bubble burst in our lifetime.........

[davenumber2]

I price mine to sell and never have a problem. Recently I've had one sell in a day and another in about a week. I'm always looking to buy also and some people are just delusional in their pricing.

[Br1ck]

Supply and demand. When you Martin dealer had no D 18s, a clean used one fetched the new pricing. I saw a burst D 18 with a significant inch long ding in the top, not something you'd notice, but you'd know it was there. It was a year old going for a hundred less than a new one would sell for. It lasted about two days.

Today you could visit a few shops and play half a dozen new D 18 guitars.

All the estate sale guitars seem to bring good prices for choice guitars. Sixties and fifties Martins sure do. Us Geezers are in a downsizing mood too. But newer players who got into GAS frenzy and bought five or six Asian imports are out of luck.

15 series guitars in good shape are asking $1200. I'd imaging they are selling for $1000. That would be a deal these days.

[oldrocker]

Originally Posted by davenumber2

I price mine to sell and never have a problem. Recently I've had one sell in a day and another in about a week. I'm always looking to buy also and some people are just delusional in their pricing.

I agree with this and try to do the same. The way I look at it is that if I want to really experience a certain guitar that wouldn't be easy for me to try out, I look for buying it used. Once I finally find what I'm looking for used at a good price, if it doesn't completely work for me, I put it up for sale at the same price I paid for it. If I need to come down a hundred or two in order to get it sold, that's fine with me. I consider that reasonable "rent" for getting to really play and learn about a certain guitar, often for several months. Both the new buyer and myself got a good deal. Everyone wins. If I love it I keep it.

[sinistral]

An anecdote that may be relevant—I decided to downsize a bit, and wanted to put an assortment of guitars up for consignment, ranging from $2,300 to $6,000. I approached one local shop that has fairly high-end, boutique guitars as well as Martin, Gibson, Taylor, etc. They basically said that the holiday season was slower than usual so they had more inventory than expected, and took a pass. Another shop I went to happily took them all, and two of them have already sold (in the $3k - $4k range). So to some extent, it really just depends on whom you talk to, and how the guitars are priced (and the prices of the two that sold were priced higher than what I would have listed them for in the AGF classifieds).

[davenumber2]

Originally Posted by oldrocker

I agree with this and try to do the same. The way I look at it is that if I want to really experience a certain guitar that wouldn't be easy for me to try out, I look for buying it used. Once I finally find what I'm looking for used at a good price, if it doesn't completely work for me, I put it up for sale at the same price I paid for it. If I need to come down a hundred or two in order to get it sold, that's fine with me. I consider that reasonable "rent" for getting to really play and learn about a certain guitar, often for several months. Both the new buyer and myself got a good deal. Everyone wins. If I love it I keep it.

Yes, doing it this way I either break even or lose some. I buy used so it's not bad. Losing a couple hundred bucks after having the guitar for, say, a year is no big deal to me. I'm not in this to make money. I'm in it to find great guitars that I love to play.

[fazool]

Originally Posted by oldrocker

I agree with this and try to do the same. The way I look at it is that if I want to really experience a certain guitar that wouldn't be easy for me to try out, I look for buying it used. Once I finally find what I'm looking for used at a good price, if it doesn't completely work for me, I put it up for sale at the same price I paid for it. If I need to come down a hundred or two in order to get it sold, that's fine with me. I consider that reasonable "rent" for getting to really play and learn about a certain guitar, often for several months. Both the new buyer and myself got a good deal. Everyone wins. If I love it I keep it.

Originally Posted by davenumber2

Yes, doing it this way I either break even or lose some. I buy used so it's not bad. Losing a couple hundred bucks after having the guitar for, say, a year is no big deal to me. I'm not in this to make money. I'm in it to find great guitars that I love to play.

I do the same.....I've been able to test drive dozens of desirable (to me) guitars and keep the ones that choose me.

[CoastStrings]

"This is not a good time to sell your gear ... and Reverb is just getting worse. "

"Don't sell if you don't have to."

[Moldstar]

Originally Posted by davidd

I watched the video a few days ago and what he says seems fairly accurate from what I am seeing locally here in the SF Bay Area. CL listings are hanging around for months sometimes and it is obvious that some sellers haven't got a clue as to what the market is. Fender can churn out a gazillion Strats and Telecasters all they want but there is only so much the market can handle. As far as amps, the trend to small amps has been going on for a very long time. Who the heck needs a 50 watt head and 4x12 cab in their bedroom?

My rule of thumb for used MINT condition guitars is 60% max of street price and I'll usually try and get it for 50% or lower. Obviously there are still some brands and guitars that are holding their value better, but what this guy says seems about right.

I think this is accurate - so many listings I see on Reverb are so poorly priced, and it takes a long time for some of these sellers to understand that as they incrementally move the price down to an actual saleable point.

[Jamolay]

I agree that a lot of postings on Reverb and Craigslist are over priced. I have seen some on Craigslist that must have kept getting renewed for the last few years. No price reductions though, so either the seller is clueless or just has the add up to appease a spouse…

On the other hand I just sold two guitars, bought off Reverb at the height of COVID, one on EBay, the other on Reverb. After fees, shipping and all, I ended up netting exactly what I had originally paid for them within a few dollars. I call that a win.

[Robin, Wales]

In the UK we are in a cost of living crisis. It is hitting the discretionary spend items. I have a D-18 up on Ebay at the moment. It has been listed for 6 weeks, and for most of that time it has been the only D-18 on Ebay from within the UK. It is priced as expected, and I am willing to negotiate. But I have only had one person contact me about the guitar.

It is getting views and watchers but folks are just not in the position to buy. April sees big rises coming in Council Tax and insurance and phone contracts. So I can't see the situation getting any better soon.

Luckily I'm in no hurry and don't need to sell.

[tinnitus]

Might be a good time to buy!

The tone of this thread has prompted me to start scouring Craigslist in my area again - daily. My buy/sell/trade addiction really slowed down when I stopped playing electric planks and amps 8-10 years ago. But I'm always open to a new/used acoustic guitar - currently have 4 that I actively rotate through for open mic nights.

Prices are all over the place!

Today I see a few Gibsons, Martins, a Furch and some other pieces that typically fetch a good amount. They seem fair. And an Esteban in a case for $100!

The wildest inflation I see (always, and not just this year) is among sellers continually running a dozen ads for a dozen guitars, in which they paste 20-30 lines of irrelevant keywords at the bottom of every ad. So, for instance, the ad for an Ovation Celebrity has several hundred extra keywords pasted in including every brand of guitar, amp, PA, instrument, material, etc., etc., ever made. Annoying.

So why Craigslist? I only consider buying instruments that I can evaluate hands-on (and ears/eyes of course). I have decades of fun experiences dealing with all varieties of CL players/flakes (mostly with instruments, kayaks, vehicles, etc.). And fanning cash under a seller's nose often helps me get a great price. It's an entertaining hobby and I never know what might come home with me next. Once traded a nylon string acoustic and a box of .357 mag ammo for an aluminum canoe with a 12V battery and trolling motor. Never saw that coming.

As always, and perhaps even more so in such a criminally depressed economy, caveat emptor.

[CoastStrings]

Originally Posted by tinnitus

Might be a good time to buy!

It is, but the sellers that are asking for unrealistic prices need to first experience the lack of demand.

I responded to a couple of Craigslist ads about 1-2 months after they first appeared (and were reposted). Got what I wanted at great prices.

I have seen a couple of nice midrange electrics that have softened on their prices (below 60% street price and in excellent-to-mint condition) and nobody's snatched them. I can't say that I'm surprised. I'd bite but I don't have a need for them.

[JackC1]

I think it is coming, just not here yet. There are so many used guitars still at rediculous prices (I can buy new for cheaper). The same listings for months. Nobody's buying, of course, because why buy used when you can buy new for about the same price?

Here's what I think:

1. Manufacturers placed large orders on guitars for pandemic market.
2. Pandemic ends, large amounts of guitars are still flowing in.
3. Manufacturers turns off that guitar pipeline; takes time to shut.
4. In the mean time, lots of guitars still flows in that needs to be sold.
5. This mean heavily discounted new guitars.
6. Used guitars are not price compeitive with new.
7. Next year, new guitar pipeline closed and inventory normalize.
8. Next year, new guitar prices will be not so much discounted.
9. Next year, there'll be this year's used guitars (not sold because tii expensive relative to new guitars) + next year's used guitars.
10. Next year, too many used guitars, so the used prices will be discounted.

So, this is the year to buy cheap new guitars and sell used guitars.
Next year is the year to buy cheap used guitars.