The Great Boomer Collection Purge?

[rmp]

Originally Posted by J-Doug

...we should get back to discussing neck attachements and BRW and what strings should I put on my guitar...

and we're due for another Capo or Not debate...

[Corndog]

Originally Posted by J-Doug

Hi guys,

following along with a thought I had in another thread.

For a few years now I keep hearing about a disturbance in the guitar world that is looming on the horizon. I call it The Great Boomer Collection Purge. Supposedly this is when Baby Boomer guitarists of advancing age or their estates will start dumping their guitar collections on the used market thus creating a vast crash in values and all sorts of mayhem.

Has it happened, is it happening, or will it happen? And is it the catastrophe it has been played up to be?

Disturbance, looming, purge, vast crash in values, mayhem, catastrophe.
Geez, sounds bad.
I don't think all that will occur. I'm guessing it to be a Y2K like event. Yawn.
And even if it were to occur at some level, so what? Who will it affect? We're just talking about some money here, the guitars won't care.
Martin endured the Great Depression, they'll survive whatever this might be.

[Slothead56]

Soon to be retired Boomer….

I wonder if some of us have a warped sense of what constitutes “normal” ownership. When I discovered AGF 10 years ago I had one guitar, a high end Martin dread. It was only my fourth guitar in over 30 years of playing.

In the past 10 years I’ve bought and sold 21 guitars and currently own an additional 7. Trying to get to the “final 5”, a number where each of my three kids can have 1 or 2 after I’m gone.

I guess my point is that, for me, the “Boomer purge” is incidental because the final value of my guitars is intended to be sentimental, not monetary.

[mawmow]

Originally Posted by beatcomber

Has anything like this ever happened with, say, vintage automobiles or other collectibles?

I find this comparison interesting.

We should not assume that all collection will fall on the market.

A lot of those will age badly though well cared for, some will be destroyed
in floods or fires and a lot stolent falling in hands that will not care that
much about those. Most will probably be passed in younger hands of the family.

So those appearing on market will count not so good items as welle as real
vintage treasures worth gold.

Thanks for all the well thought out responses to my somewhat tongue-in-cheek post. Excellent discussion!

[RP]

Maybe someone will develop the equivalent of a Reverse Mortgage - money is paid now and then the guitars are shipped upon our demise....

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by rmp

and we're due for another Capo or Not debate...

Hmmm, I was thinking more along the lines of Andy Powers and V-Class, but that has already been done and redone recently.

Tony

[jaymarsch]

This thread reminds me of attending a steel string guitar show that happened every year at the Marin County Exposition Hall (and other venues in other large metro areas). There would be lots of used/vintage Martins, Gibsons, Guilds, Washburns, etc. Most of them looked like they had been around the block a number of times with many suffering from acute belt buckle-itis. If you had the time, you could root through all the hundreds of offerings and find a gem. I haven’t been to one of these events since the pandemic started but I think that, as others have already said, the liquidation is happening all the time so not as noticeable as a single “purge” event.
BTW, a friend of mine used to go to these events and she acquired 3 different Washburn parlors, all Brazilian rosewood, from the late 1800s. She paid around $1K for each of them and then had them refurbished by a local luthier. They are stellar instruments and tonally equal if not surpass most modern luthier built guitars that I’ve played.
Best,
Jayne

[Maryc-k]

Originally Posted by jaymarsch

This thread reminds me of attending a steel string guitar show that happened every year at the Marin County Exposition Hall (and other venues in other large metro areas). There would be lots of used/vintage Martins, Gibsons, Guilds, Washburns, etc. Most of them looked like they had been around the block a number of times with many suffering from acute belt buckle-itis. If you had the time, you could root through all the hundreds of offerings and find a gem. I haven’t been to one of these events since the pandemic started but I think that, as others have already said, the liquidation is happening all the time so not as noticeable as a single “purge” event.
BTW, a friend of mine used to go to these events and she acquired 3 different Washburn parlors, all Brazilian rosewood, from the late 1800s. She paid around $1K for each of them and then had them refurbished by a local luthier. They are stellar instruments and tonally equal if not surpass most modern luthier built guitars that I’ve played.
Best,
Jayne

Even those Washburns are selling for $$$$ now. I think Retrofret had one a while back.

[Mr. Jelly]

I have seen older people here and on other forums selling their quality guitars because of age. It's not uncommon. Selling good desirable guitars at fair prices often takes time. But it's not a surge. It just happens and they are absorbed.

I expected the prices of Harley Davidson motorcycles to fall because of a boomer dump. Has it happened yet?

[M19]

Originally Posted by tbeltrans

That chart is interesting...



Maybe the high end guitars will become similar to the truly high end violins in which gifted performers are sponsored by some wealthy person who loans the performer the guitar.

The world is constantly changing and we are all in that path.

Tony

I get the concept, but for me it doesn't seem like guitars fit this bill, and I'm not sure why. Violins, sure. Even Mandolins maybe, since it seems that virtuosos like Chris Thile will buy a $100k 1924 Loar and PLAY it all the time. But I can't think of a guitarist example like that. Am I missing some?

[M19]

I also think that any surpluses will likely get sucked into the growing Asian markets. Happened with art, wine, etc. on high end stuff.

[6L6]

One of my hobbies has been collecting Pre and Postwar Lionel Trains. I'm glad I bought my trains because I wanted them and not because I thought they were a good investment.

Prices on these trains have PLUMMETED with the passings of the boomers who grew up with them and collected the trains of their boyhood dreams that they couldn't afford as youngsters.

But today's kids don't care about electric trains. The market is now flooded with old Lionel and American Flyer electric trains and as Boomers pass, their offspring have no interest in them and try to convert them to dollars they'll spend elsewhere. Supply has FAR exceed Demand and prices have tanked. Eventually you'll be lucky to just give the trains away.

I could see this happening with guitars too.

[tbeltrans]

Originally Posted by M19

I get the concept, but for me it doesn't seem like guitars fit this bill, and I'm not sure why. Violins, sure. Even Mandolins maybe, since it seems that virtuosos like Chris Thile will buy a $100k 1924 Loar and PLAY it all the time. But I can't think of a guitarist example like that. Am I missing some?

No, you are thinking too much. My comment was "tongue in cheek". Relax. I doubt that much of any of the dire predictions in this thread have any basis in reality.

Tony

[tommieboy]

Originally Posted by J-Doug

....or their estates will start dumping their guitar collections on the used market thus creating a vast crash in values and all sorts of mayhem....

Or, their estate will simply call for a bulk trash pickup and just toss everything into the nearest municipal dump. It is not as uncommon as one would think. What's that old saying: "one man's treasure is another man's trash."

Tommy