Guitar Apocalypse
 

There is a video on YouTube called Used Guitar Apocalypse . A shop called Gary’s Guitars is explaining that used guitars are not bringing much. Amplifiers , everyone is going to smaller and smaller amplifiers . He talks about don’t believe the advertised prices on Reverb or ebay. He says they aren’t selling . He is avoiding consignments unless he can make money. He said the market is flooded with used equipment . He also says people don’t have CASH anymore and this hurts the used market the social media like Craiglist , Facebook or the individual seller

Gary has a point. A good point. A cashless point.

Apocalypse...
 

In our current media environment there is lots of money to make claiming to see the coming apocalypse or quoting an expert who predicted the last apocalypse who is predicting the next apocalypse. Just keep in mind: Predictions are difficult. Especially about the future!

I saw this exact scenario back in 2008/2009 but we don't seem to be anywhere near that yet.

My thoughts.

Cheers, Doug

Psy ops on his clientele aiming to push their expectations below market (not that a $3000 Marshall stack at mid pandemic is going to make sense at more than $1000 on consignment today).

That video popped up on my YouTube feed a week or so ago. Thought about posting it here…but he seemed to be talking mainly about electrics and relatively inexpensive acoustics. The clickbate title soured me, too. So I passed. Until now. WATCH the video then judge it for yourself, folks…though I know there are already baked in opinions on this by some (many?).

I think a lot of post pandemic hobbyist equipment is flooding the market. The cash point is very good. It's not easy to even withdraw enough cash at one time to pay for a good guitar. And some folks are worried about getting knocked in the head if they bring cash. The scams near me are crazy. It's to the point where I wouldn't consider buying a guitar or something "relatively" expensive from an unknown individual.

I have bought a couple guitars locally here in Houston and Austin with no problem . It seems if you have the cash , sellers negotiate.

Quite possible. His business is buy low, sell high. So he tells people he's buying from that the market is dead and the people he's selling to that the market is hot. But why make a video that goes out to buyers and sellers alike?

Alternative explanation: his prices are too high (lots of people are still trying to get 2021 prices) and he sees a dead market when it's only dead for him — because the market clearing price is lower than his price and he needs to adjust downward.

Lots of gear is still selling, just keep an eye on the AGF forums and watch listings get deleted, or marked sold, sometimes same day. But it has to be priced right.

I can't say I disagree with him, but I don't see the number of guitars on Reverb climbing. Facts always get in the way of opinions. :)

Offhand, i would guess that demographics suggests that a guitar crash is coming, if not already here. But data is more important than theory. Does anyone have any data regarding the state of guitar sales, even knowledge about whether more or fewer new acoustic guitars (particularly less expensive models) are selling -- e.g., are Martin and Taylor making more or fewer guitars these days?

When the real apocalypse comes I sure will be glad I have all these guitars. Going to need them to beat up the zombies. :)

Exactly - based on lots of factors, it has to be priced right. This is something I see nearly everywhere now. Seems there is a widespread insistence (by individuals and dealers) that used guitars - across the price/quality/age/condition spectrum - retain more of their original price and market value than they actually do. In some cases, this disparity is … surprising.

And all the while, guitar makers keep churning out new ones.

If I had a dollar for every BS line I ever heard at a guitar store….. I could probably buy a nice guitar.

LoL! Make sure you got a Tele! Best zombie basher out there!

You can trade them for food and toilet paper.;) Marketing fear has been the ploy of lots of industries. That someone is using fear to sell guitars, didn't we hear this just a few years ago here during the pandemic? Buy them while you can, you won't be able to in the future.

I watched the video a few days ago and what he says seems fairly accurate from what I am seeing locally here in the SF Bay Area. CL listings are hanging around for months sometimes and it is obvious that some sellers haven't got a clue as to what the market is. Fender can churn out a gazillion Strats and Telecasters all they want but there is only so much the market can handle. As far as amps, the trend to small amps has been going on for a very long time. Who the heck needs a 50 watt head and 4x12 cab in their bedroom?

My local music store Gelb in Redwood City (AKA Haight Ashbury Music) used to be crammed with customers on a Friday afternoon and Saturday. These days tumbleweeds could blow through and not hit one person. I asked one of the guys working there and he said young people weren't interested anymore and the people that kept them going were from the latino community because they were still musically active as opposed to the Tik Tok high school generation.

My rule of thumb for used MINT condition guitars is 60% max of street price and I'll usually try and get it for 50% or lower. Obviously there are still some brands and guitars that are holding their value better, but what this guy says seems about right.

Watched this one yesterday myself, and he's got a couple of points, as other posters have mentioned.

Being able to buy something, play it for months, then turn around and get what you paid (or more) for it is over, but somebody forgot to tell people on FB Marketplace that.

I don’t know. Don’t you think $2k for a D-18 or $2.5k for an HD-28, say both Reimagined and pristine, with Baggs or Fishman pickups, are fair prices today? Or should you try to find one at $1.5k and $2k, respectively? Or $500 less than that? What is fair?

I’d say quality is still worth it.

A new D18 lists for about $2800. Many dealers will knock off 10% (or more) which would take it to around $2500. And many players don't want or need a pickup in their D18, even though it sometimes seems like people think it's mandatory to immediately put one in. Whatever. But in those cases, the pickup is of little to no added value in the sale.

Then add in the benefit that many dealers will offer a return if the guitar turns out to have an issue of some kind (happens all the time), or if you get it and it's either not a good one, or you just don't like it. And the original owner warranty, which given the binding and early neck reset issues with Martins, might have some value.

And the dealer may cover shipping costs too - several I've worked with have almost absurdly low rate deals with FedEx and UPS.

When buying used, you need to carefully determine if the seller is honest and/or if they actually know how to accurately and fairly report on the condition of a used guitar. Was it humidified? Does the seller know how to pack an acoustic guitar correctly? Those risks need to be taken into account when thinking of price. If it's a local sale, that can really make a difference here.

Taking the above (and other things) into account, for me a pristine D18 might be worth about $1700-$1800, maybe less.

Where you really start to see reality is when you buy, say, a new Collings. (Not picking on them - I LOVE their guitars, I currently own one, and have owned too many.) The depreciation on higher-end guitars can be a real wake-up call on market realities, especially now.

Lastly, I don't know what you mean by "I’d say quality is still worth it.". Is quality worth overpaying, given market trends at the moment?

Supply and demand rule the day as usual…..if you’re following the AGF marketplace you know that sales are soft right now and guitars of all types are moving more slowly…..the best way to sell is to beat everyone else’s price…and hope that someone out there is wanting what you’re selling….

Higher end used acoustic guitar prices on Reverb in many cases are definitely dropping and 'Make an Offer' is more often posted. The total opposite is happening with the same manufacturer and model of a new guitar. Collings, Santa Cruz, Bourgeois etc all seem to be raising their prices. So it would seem to be a good time to look at the used ones if in the market. However there is still the issue of not being able to play one before buying on Reverb and a few other outlets. I think the video just generally shows that the market has changed on a lot of gear.

Seems like Gary's having a bad day.

Well, maybe I overpaid by a couple hundred.

Let’s just say I did my diligence about the conditions of both guitars (see below) and I hit the Vegas jackpot with the two sellers — two guys I’d be honored to call friends. Even if I could have kept two or three hundred each in my pocket for instruments I’ll never sell, then what I received was still worth it, both times. (Shhh…no tax) Perhaps my experience was atypical.

If you got great guitars from good people, there's value in that too. So maybe you paid correctly! :up:

You got that right! Someone on FB Marketplace had a1972 Guild D-55 for sale. Seller said it has sat untouched in a closet, not humidfied for over 25 years and now she wanted top dollar. Plus from the pics shown enough wear to not justify anywhere top price. Her ad stated, no low ball offers

He is spot on! Good for him for knowing his business very well. I tend to agree many people dealing in non vintage guitars have over inflated ideas of what their guitars are worth.

For individuals, riding market fluctuations can be frustrating but, if you're a business, having a bunch of inventory you bought when prices were high in a declining market can be a threat to survival. It's hard enough to be a brick and mortar store in good times. Unfortunately, in a declining market, it can be nearly impossible. Everybody wants to walk into a guitar store and be able to try out a 100 guitars and, once they find the guitar they like, pay internet prices for it. I'll pay a bit of a premium to buy local and support local businesses but, I'm not really sure the premium I'm willing to pay covers the overhead........

I believe it... but also, look at the prices. Why would I spend 90% of the new price to buy used? It used to be used was like 50% of new or so... but peeps have pushed that up so much, I just can't see any reason to buy used, unless its for something that's no longer available new I guess.

Also, I have noticed that there are a lot of very well made... hmm... maybe not well made, but very close copies of popular guitars by Chinese manufacturers. That too makes me more Leary of buying used at the moment.

Yup, my other hobby bicycles is getting hit hard. During the pandemic everyone wanted to play outside so the sports equipment industry went bonkers. The only problem was that the supply chain was destroyed so while thousands of people wanted bikes shops could not get them. Once they figured it out and the pandemic died off along with the demand the market was totally saturated. So if you want a good bike for cheap now is a good time.

Reverb's asking prices are a poor gauge of what gear is selling for. But Reverb also shows the range of selling prices for lots of items, and that's a pretty good gauge.